Episode 1319: Scott, Bore Us
Date January 8, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Oliver Drake’s new (and also old) team, the Mets, Brodie Van Wagenen, and Keon Broxton, the Yankees signing Zach Britton, how data and technology have helped some free agents and hurt others, the state of free-agent spending and baseball’s economic past, present, and future, Scott Boras’s latest linguistic crime, the White Sox acquiring the friends and family of Manny Machado, Jonny Gomes getting hired as an unlikely coach, and Willians Astudillo’s winter league playoff performance, then answer listener emails about choosing which way to run the bases, televising winter leagues, scoring on defense, and the worst things for players to be the best at, plus a Stat Blast about the least and most consistent team winning percentages. Topics * Changing base paths * More baseball on TV * Baseball defensive scoring * Worst baseball superpower Intro * Nat King Cole, "Thou Swell" Outro * Neil Young, "Sample and Hold" Banter * Oliver Drake moved again * Keon Broxton to Mets * Zach Britton * Scott Boras used another word * This offseason v last offseason * Why a slower off season than normal * Competitive Balance Tax * Willians Astudillo * The White Sox offseason plan * Jonny Gomes the baserunning coach Email Questions * Matt: A while ago I was thinking about potential alternate ground rules, one of which was allowing the home team to decide what direction to run the bases (i.e. swapping the location of first base and third base). The direction would be declared before the game. I floated this idea to my brother and he immediately came up with a, in my opinion, much more interesting rule variation: what if you let the batter decide what direction to run the bases after putting the ball in play? The rules would be roughly as follows: Draw a circular area 10 feet in diameter centered at the back tip of home plate. When nobody is on base and the batter puts the ball in play, the batter “declares” which of the corner bases is first base by exiting the circle in the direction of that base. Prior to leaving the circle, both corner bases are treated as first base, meaning the fielding team can force the batter out at either base if the batter has not yet left the batting circle. Once the batter leaves the circle, the base he is headed towards becomes first base and the other base becomes third base. If a batter puts the ball in play and there is a runner on base, he must run the bases in the same direction as his teammate. If the batter exits the circle in the opposite direction, he is automatically out. I can think of a few obvious ways this changes baseball: Defenses can’t easily hide a defender with a poor arm at first base or left field, ground balls to the right side of the infield are more likely to become hits, and balls in the left-center gap or down the left-field line are more likely to produce triples. “Third basemen” would need to learn how to hold a runner on much better than they currently do, and we’d see many more errors where a fielder throws the ball to the wrong base. I suspect we’d also see more attempts to bunt for base hits, as the defensive coverage would have to account for the batter running towards either base. However, I expect there are other side-effects of this rule change I haven’t thought of. * Anton: Why isn’t there more push for televised games from the other leagues? With all the money being spent on MLB television rights, I’d think some network or streaming service would be interested in picking up Winterball: MLB players, similar time zone, and no direct competition with the MLB season. There seems to be room for NBA and college ball, NFL and college ball, you’d think baseball could handle an extra league or two. * Ben: In a recent episode of fangraphs audio, Meg and Sam were talking about excitement in baseball and noted in passing that one thing that increases excitement in football is that the defense can score (they were particularly talking about safeties). Could something like this be good for baseball? Here is the best suggestion I came up with. Could we give the defense a half run for every inning where they strike out the side? That would greatly increase the batter's incentive to put the ball in play, which could be good. On the other hand, it might also increase the pitcher's incentive to pitch for a strike out. However, it seems like pitchers are almost always going for strikeouts nowadays anyway. Obviously this would never happen, but thoughts? * Dave: It's hard to imagine a more exciting hypothetical baseball player than Vroom Vroom (gets a hit every time, but can't stop running), but what's the *least* exciting baseball super power possible? What if a player could stay in a rundown indefinitely? Is that the most unbearable hypothetical player? Every time he got on base he could stay in a rundown until the defense made enough errors for him to score, which would take HOURS. Would teams start walking the guy ahead of him in the lineup to block him on the bases? Would opposing teams eventually just start letting him score on walks and singles to save time? StatBlast * Over the last 5 years the Twins have winning percentage .432, .512, .364, .525,.481. It is the most consistent 5-year stretch. Notes * “He's like Dipoto light” - Ben on Brodie Van Wagenen. * “What if the White Sox didn't sign those guys and just gave Manny an extra 12 million bucks” - Jeff * The average major league salary has actually dropped from last year, only the 5th time in the last 50 years. * Episode 1321 provides listener answers to the question of running the bases clockwise. Links https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1319-scott-bore-us/ Link to Drake interview Link to Jeff’s post on Britton Link to dolphin story Link to Sam on Harrison’s pickle powers Link to Ben’s article on the FA market Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes